Fast Take
Bitcoin ETFs have garnered important consideration in 2024, amassing over $17 billion in web inflows.
Senior Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas means that with out the success of Bitcoin ETFs, the digital belongings’s worth would hover round $20,000 as a substitute of the present $60,000. He argues that ETF exercise has been a key driver in Bitcoin’s worth surge.
“Take the ETFs away from image and btc worth might be round $20k”.
Nevertheless, I disagree with Balchunas’s evaluation. I’ve emphasised that the quantity of Bitcoin ETFs is comparatively minor in comparison with the futures market, which performs a extra substantial function in influencing Bitcoin’s worth.
As of Aug. 12, the futures buying and selling quantity has reached $74 billion, considerably surpassing the ETF buying and selling quantity, which stands at $1.3 billion, in keeping with knowledge from checkonchain.
I align extra intently with the views of Checkmate, a well-respected analyst within the Bitcoin house. He highlights that web capital flows within the Bitcoin market quantity to roughly $12 billion per thirty days, with long-term holder provide modifications round $1.6 billion, considerably bigger than any given ETF influx or outflow per thirty days.
In essence, whereas ETFs are influential, they aren’t the first pressure driving Bitcoin’s market. As Checkmate succinctly places it,
“At finest, the ETFs are 20% of the affect. They’re essential, however not the driving force”.
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