Wednesday, November 6, 2024

The Market Measurement Mistake by @ttunguz

Over the weekend, Tobi, the founder and CEO of Shopify, mentioned the main motive buyers handed on Shopify within the early days : market measurement.

I keep in mind that financing spherical, & I keep in mind having the identical concern, & making the identical mistake. Residing within the valley & driving on 101, the billboards & logo-adorned headquarters of profitable firms present a day by day infusion of all of the errors in I’ve made in guessing how an organization or a market would possibly evolve.

Years later, I listened as Invoice Gurley shared his ideas about market measurement. He requested himself a query : whether or not the startup was growing, lowering, or sustaining the market measurement? (I can’t appear to seek out the hyperlink – however I’ve it in my notes!)

I added that query to my diligence checklist when assembly startups.

Now a lot later, having seen many firms create classes or reinvigorate growing old ones, the query I ask myself has developed.

It’s not because the market measurement massive sufficient? As a substitute, it the query is : can we consider this firm can create the market?

Market measurement is the output of all of the gamers advertising, promoting, constructing. Their efforts alter, distort, & juice the provision/demand curves of macroeconomics. It’s not a given – not an output or a steady-state CAGR.

Typically it’s the startups that engender the demand, change the market dynamics, & make markets large by taking dangers with merchandise.

When executed proper, these founders create category-defining companies like Shopify (now price $90b)!


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