Wednesday, November 6, 2024

Productiveness One Yr from Now by @ttunguz

If AI continues on its present trajectory or accelerates, what’s going to change in your online business?

Elo Scores for AI

We’ve been asking leaders of firms & departments this query & the solutions aren’t clear.

In a number of years, consensus agrees that rote work of BDRs & paralegals & software program engineering will likely be considerably to principally automated. However figuring out the timing of that influence is far more tough : it will depend on the accuracy of the AI.

Calculating headcount modifications is tougher. Sudden headcount reductions or workforce restructuring are unlikely. As an alternative, groups will rent fewer individuals over time however generate extra income per worker.

Most public firms function at between $100-400k in ARR per worker.

ARR per employee

What is going to that quantity be in 2 years? 500k? 600k? 1m?

Immediately, publicly traded software program firms function on common unprofitably with -9.3% web revenue margin, however 16.2% Money Movement Margin.

Metric Internet Revenue Margin, % Money Movement Margin, %
Common -9.3% 16.2%

As multiples within the public markets have compressed within the final 2 years, however AI publics commerce at a 100% premium, it could be as a result of the market is pricing in these efficiencies, implying income from AI firms will likely be twice as beneficial as a result of they may generate twice as a lot in earnings. 1

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1This assumes that traders worth software program firms on future skill to generate earnings.

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